Current modeling predicts a warmer climate will affect the hydrologic cycle. Scenario planning is one option to help mitigate the uncertainty surrounding water supply planning under climate change.
Because mountains affect weather, climate models do not agree whether there will be more or less precipitation in the Rocky Mountains due to climate change, however the predicted change is anticipated to be less than the natural variation that has occurred in the past. While climate modeling is uncertain, we can using stream gauges and paleo-hydrology developed from tree-rings and other sources to determine the historical variations in water supply. These can be used to estimate possible changes in the hydrologic cycle, including changes in the timing and amount of runoff.
Using likely ranges of change, we can develop future scenarios and determine projects or actions to meet demands. Projects common to multiple scenarios can form the basis for “low regrets” and “no regrets” planning. While the future hydrology won’t match any particular scenario, it is likely to fall within the planning field. By building on the common projects and actions, and by updating the planning to account for new data, the odds are very good that water supplies can be met in the future.
Contact High Country to discuss your concerns about how climate change will affect your future supplies.